Why Balance Sheet Valuations Aren't Always Reliable

Published in Investing on 23 April 2012

There are many reasons why things may not be exactly as they appear...

Many investors prefer to invest in a company that owns a lot of physical assets because these can always be sold to raise cash if it ever gets into difficulties. The problem is that if the company gets into trouble, it often discovers that many of its assets are worth much less than the figure stated in its most recent balance sheet. Naturally, its liabilities will be extremely solid.

This isn't just because buyers take advantage of distressed sellers by offering low prices. Several other factors also conspire to drive down the shareholders' piece of the corporate cake.

Fails to reflect market realities

Back in 1985, the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B.US) textile company was wound up. When it auctioned off equipment that was valued in the accounts at $866,000 after depreciation, it received just $163,122. As Berkshire's boss Warren Buffett said in the next annual report: "Allowing for necessary pre- and post-sale costs, our net was less than zero."

The problem was that the value assigned to its machinery didn't reflect the state of the American textile market, which had collapsed under intense foreign competition. The most extreme example was some looms that had cost $5,000 apiece less then five years earlier and didn't sell at auction. They eventually went for $26 each to a buyer who wanted them for scrap!

Balance sheets don't always reflect market values.

Employees' claims

A contingent liability is a liability that could arise in the future. Companies allow for these by estimating what they might have to pay, the probability of having to pay and the dates when this might happen. Then they use discounted cashflow techniques to produce the figure that appears in the accounts.

Leaving aside the tendency of some companies to undervalue their contingent liabilities, some simply won't be mentioned in the accounts. One such is the redundancy payments that might be paid to its workforce. A business that's doing well doesn't have to worry about this, but if it gets into difficulties it could be forced to lay off a lot of staff whose redundancy payments would eat away at the assets.

This is much less of an issue in America where it's relatively easy to get rid of staff without too much comeback. But it's something to be wary of in Britain and Europe, where generations of employment regulation have made it very expensive to dismiss staff.

Too many sellers

If a particular sector of the stock market is in trouble, then many similar assets will come onto the market at the same time, which, in turn, depresses their value. This often happens in the housing market when several houses in the same street are up for sale and there's a lack of buying interest. When the desperate sellers drop their prices, the others have to respond similarly or their chances of selling will drop dramatically.

Any time a seller wants to turn an illiquid asset like property into cash within a few days, they will usually only receive a fraction of its market value -- if they can find a buyer -- because buyers take advantage of distressed sellers and will probably be a little suspicious.

There's an excellent illustration of this in the dystopian thriller In Time, which is set in a world where money buys you more life and when you run out then you drop dead on the spot. In one scene, the heroes have a minute to live and the only thing that can save them is if a pawnbroker gives them something for an extremely valuable pair of diamond earrings.

Unfortunately, the pawnbroker already knows how desperate they are because the leading lady hasn't covered the clock on her arm that shows how much time she has left. So he makes a ridiculously low offer. When she complains, he tells her "you can take the 48 hours, or you can be a pretty corpse". When you have only one offer, you're often forced to accept it.

Goodwill or badwill?

Many investors are suspicious of goodwill and other intangible assets, such as brands and trademarks, as they can vanish in the proverbial puff of smoke when a company gets into trouble. Often the reason for the company's difficulties is that the intangible assets haven't been pulling their weight, and sales have consequently dropped off at an alarming rate.

When this happens, it's extremely likely that the previous amortisation charges -- the writing off of goodwill over time -- haven't reflected this so it won't be worth anything like what the accounts say.

A good example is the fate of Netscape Communications. In 1996 it was one of the strongest internet companies, with a brand worth billions and investors scrambled to buy its shares -- yet a few years later it was all but worthless. Netscape had been hammered by the ferocious competition from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT.US), and it also severely damaged its brand when a much-touted upgrade to its flagship product made it much worse, so its goodwill simply melted away.

While a company should reduce the value of its goodwill if it is "permanently impaired", as happened to Netscape, often this happens long after the event, and investors who were relying on the balance sheet will get a nasty shock.

Bricks and mortar

One of the more stable asset classes is residential property. House prices in Britain tend not to fall too heavily so financial institutions will generally lend far larger amounts to individuals to buy property than any other type of asset. That's because if the borrower defaults, they can repossess the house and they should be able to find another buyer without having to take too much of a hit in the process.

Of course, if your income dries up to the point when you cannot make the interest payments, as happened to some property companies like Warner Estate Holdings (LSE: WNER) during the last recession, your debts will melt your asset values like ice cream on a hot day as you're forced to sell properties in a depressed market to meet these payments. But that's another story!

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More from Tony Luckett:

> Tony owns shares in Berkshire Hathaway.

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Comments

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snikmij 24 Apr 2012 , 1:42pm

Thanks very much for the information in the article.

Have been somewhat suspicious about these intangible assets and how they are valued but there seems to be little that I can do but be suspicious.

goodlifer 24 Apr 2012 , 11:49pm

"There seems to be little that I can do but be suspicious".
I agree, snikmij.

One - one of many - things that puzzles me:
We're constantly told that one of the most important factors in evaluating a share is the health of its free cash flow.

If I were the boss of a company with a healthy free cash flow I'd trumpet this fact from the rooftops in the hopes that everybody'd want to buy into my company.

As it is, this information is normally buried so deeply in the company's accounts that you've got to be some kind of a financial nurd to even hope to find out the truth.

Why?

I have to admit I'm probably just prejudiced.
Partly because decoding accounts is one of my numerous blind spots.

And partly because I once worked for a company whose accounts were audited by a prestigious firm, and found good, while the boss was writing learned articles for the Financial Times.

Within six months we went bust.

snikmij 27 Apr 2012 , 6:27pm

goodlifer, Tim Bennett of Moneyweek has released a video of Free Cash Flow and how to calculate it.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/how-to-invest/video-tutorials/video-tutorial-on-free-cash-flow-13401

Worth viewing!

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