Glencore's Bid For Xstrata Under Threat

Published in Investing on 27 June 2012

... but is there a short-term profit for shareholders?

The attempt by Glencore (LSE: GLEN) to take over Xstrata (LSE: XTA), to create one of the world's largest mining and resources operations, looked to be done and dusted.

But the deal, valued at £16.9bn, is up in the air again, after another of Xstrata's largest shareholders has joined those who want a better offer.

Standard Life (LSE: SL) and Schroders (LSE: SDR) have already said they will vote against a deal unless they are offered more, and they have today been joined by Qatar Holding, Xstrata's second largest shareholder with 10.3% of the company.

Qatar Holding wants the current offer of 2.8 Glencore shares for every Xstrata share upped to 3.25 shares, and it could be enough for Glencore to take notice.

Under UK takeover rules, the opposition would need to garner 16.5% of the share capital in order to block the bid, and dissenters together now represent 13.3%. Glencore itself is not allowed to use the portion of Xstrata's shares that it already owns in any vote.

A nice opportunity?

What does that mean for shareholders? Well, Xstrata's shares are currently trading at 775p, which is the equivalent of 2.65 times the current Glencore price of 292p. And that means there could be a nice arbitrage opportunity here, at either the current offer or at the level now being demanded by Qatar Holding.

Suppose you buy one Xstrata share now, at 775p. If the bid goes ahead at the original offer, you'll get 2.8 Glencore shares, currently valued at 818p, or 3.25 shares at the level of the new demand, for a value of 949p.

You'd be 6% ahead at the original offer, or 22% ahead if the new demand for 3.25 shares comes off -- or somewhere between the two if there's a compromise deal. And that looks pretty good.

However, it all depends on the deal going ahead, and Glencore could just walk away from it -- they might not want to acquire strong dissident shareholders, and there are disagreements by Qatar Holding over executive pay terms, too.

If it wants to stick to the current timetable, Glencore has until Thursday to hammer out a deal, and City commentators seem divided over the prospects of a deal sweetener or of the whole thing just collapsing.

It's an uncertain sector

Now, there are plenty of uncertainties in the mining sector at the moment, with all the big miners having seen their share prices fall -- BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT), Anglo American (LSE: AAL) and Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO) are all down around 30% over the last 12 months, and that could swing things either way.

But if you want some ideas for possibly safer sectors to invest your hard-earned cash, the Motley Fool report "Top Sectors Of 2012" has something to offer -- get it while it's still free.

But do you have the nerve to take a punt on Xstrata?

"10 Steps To Making A Million In The Market" is the very latest Motley Fool guide to help Britain invest. Better. We urge you to read the free report today -- it may transform your wealth.

Further investment opportunities:

> Alan Oscroft does not own any shares mentioned in this article.

Share & subscribe

Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

4spiel 27 Jun 2012 , 10:34pm

Are not Glencore shares cheap enough for the long term ? If they do walk away there will be smaybe other possibilities in present difficult times.Indeed it is not the time to pay over the odds.

Join the conversation

Please take note - some tags have changed.

Line breaks are converted automatically.

You may use the following tags in your post: [b]bolded text[/b], [i]italicised text[/i]. All other tags will be removed from your post.

If you want to add a link, please ensure you type it as http://www.fool.co.uk as opposed to www.fool.co.uk.

Hello stranger

To add your own comment, please login.

Not yet registered? Register now.