10 Shares The Market Hates... But You Might Love

Published in Investing on 23 July 2012

Stock-market analysts have turned bearish on these ten companies. Are they contrarian buys?

Upgrades (and downgrades) from City analysts can move share prices significantly. All shares can be affected, from smallcaps through to FTSE 100 (UKX) blue chips. Institutional fund managers often follow the analysts' advice, buying and selling shares accordingly.

The consensus analyst recommendation is therefore a good proxy for market sentiment as a whole. Understanding how bullish or bearish the market is feeling towards a share can help investors appraise the price the share might reach if sentiment turns.

(To understand more about how the market works, please download this special report "What Every New Investor Needs To Know". It is a free guide from our experts here at The Motley Fool and will be delivered immediately to your inbox.)

I trawled the market to find shares where the consensus analyst recommendation was on the wrong side of 'Hold'. In the table below, a consensus recommendation of 5 would be unanimous 'Strong Sells', while a score of 1 would be all 'Strong Buys':

CompanyBroker Consensus RecommendationPrice (p)P/EYield %Market Cap (£m)
Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO)3.11,09013.41.210,726
Standard Life (LSE: SL)3.024123.45.75,677
Schroders (LSE: SDR)3.21,37012.22.93,860
Bunzl (LSE: BNZL)3.11,10021.42.43,652
Admiral (LSE: ADM)3.11,16014.14.93,135
Capital Shopping Centres (LSE: CSCG)3.3337N/A4.52,880
Drax (LSE: DRX)3.15447.55.11,984
Lonmin (LSE: LMI)3.17267.81.31,472
PZ Cussons (LSE: PZC)3.632921.22.01,411
Michael Page International (LSE: MPI)3.235419.42.81,074

Four of these shares look particularly interesting to me.

1) PZ Cussons

Detergent and personal hygiene company PZ Cussons is a surprise name on the list. While the company has warned on profits recently, it remains one of the most successful companies on the market today.

PZ Cussons owns a number of high-profile home brands including Imperial Leather, Carex and Morning Fresh. The company's history can be traced back to the late 19th century and West Africa remains a key market for the company today. PZ Cussons first opened an office in Nigeria in 1899.

What is causing analysts to suggest the shares should be sold? Recent trading statements from the company have confirmed the damage being done by rising costs and strife in Nigeria.

However, PZ Cussons has a formidable dividend record. The company's payout to shareholders has increased year-on-year for more than 25 years. Unfortunately for income investors, PZ Cussons' dividend today equates to a prospective yield of just 2.1%.

At today's price, PZ Cussons trades on a forward P/E of 25. That's a big rating for a company where analysts expect profits to decline by 15% this year.

2) Drax

Drax owns and operates the Yorkshire power station of the same name. The company generates 7% of Britain's electricity.

On the face of it, this share should be able to deliver reliable earnings and dividends. However, in the last five years, the company's fortunes have varied considerably. While net profit for the last year hit £465 million, that figure is expected to drop substantially over the next two years. In 2009, net profit fell to just £11 million.

When investors and analysts cannot forecast future earnings to a satisfactory level of certainty, they will often mark the shares down.

Drax currently has plans to become a renewable energy provider by burning biomass. The profit the company will make from such activities depends on the level of subsidies the government is willing to provide -- and currently this is undecided. As a result, many analysts are sitting on the fence, unwilling to recommend a trade on a company with somewhat uncertain earnings.

3) Schroders

Fund manager Schroders is a blue-chip investment group with a strong position in its chosen markets. The company today trades on a P/E rating of 13.2 times consensus estimates for 2012. The shares are expected to yield 2.9%.

Schroders is a typically cyclical business. When stock markets are performing well, Schroders shares do likewise. In tougher times, shareholders can be left nursing losses.

For 2009, Schroders reported profits at half the level they were before the financial crisis. Earnings recovered sharply in 2010, more than doubling to 107p per share.

Schroder's dividend, while not huge, has been dependable. The company has not cut its annual dividend to shareholders since 1999. In 2006, Schroders paid 25p per share of dividends. The most recent dividend came in at 39p per share -- equivalent to a 9.3% rise year-on-year.

Analysts expect Schroders' earnings to decline 8% this year to 104p per share. Growth is forecast to return in 2013, with earnings hitting 116p per share. Those estimates put the company on a forward P/E of 13.2 for 2012, falling to 11.8 for 2013.

4) Admiral Group

Admiral Group is a massive success story. From its formation in 1993, Admiral now employs more than 4,500 people and boasts a market capitalisation of £3.1 billion.

Admiral is the company behind the eponymous car insurance brand. The company also owns elephant.co.uk and insurance price-comparison website confused.com.

Earlier in the year, Admiral shares declined significantly when the company announced an increase in sales but flat revenue per vehicle statistics. The numbers spooked investors into thinking Admiral's growth had ended. There has also been a series of statements from hedge funds, declaring an increase in their bets that the share price will fall.

Admiral is expected to deliver a large dividend rise for 2012. Based on analyst forecasts, this puts the shares on a prospective yield of 7.2%. On consensus forecasts, Admiral trades on a P/E of 12.7 for 2012. That's not expensive for a successful blue-chip.

What now?

The most successful investors are often willing to go against the crowd. In particular, value contrarian Neil Woodford has the kind of track record most herd-like investors can only dream of.

Indeed, his 347% market-thumping performance achieved during the 15 years to 2011 was in part supported by NOT following the crowd into dotcoms during the late 90s tech bubble.

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Further Motley Fool investment opportunities:

> David does now own shares in any of the above companies. The Motley Fool owns shares in PZ Cussons.

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Comments

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thegoodduck 23 Jul 2012 , 10:59pm

Interesting view. Bunzl, Schroders and Drax are all interesting. Not sure about admiral or insurance companies in general (from my experience with Aviva - though they are much more exposed to europe and the crises than admiral). I will keep an eye out on the others you mentioned. - thanks for the article.

Rotation96 24 Jul 2012 , 12:53pm

I can provide a little extra insight on Drax and why they could be the most interesting of the lot here (I don't hold them at the moment).

The UK has, contrary to popular belief, had a large surplus of generating capacity since the crash in 2008 reduced demand. This demand has not yet recovered and is forecast to be more or less flat for the next few years.

However, in 2008 the Large Combustion Directive began. This is a European rule that stated that all coal plant without flue gas desulphurisation had a maximum of 20,000 running hours left before they would be forced to shut, and they must complete those hours by 2015. Some stations already had FGD (Drax was one of them), some chose to fit it and some chose to wind down. This is linked to the fact that many stations also have had to complete expensive improvements to allow them to carry on generating due to their design lives being massively extended (from about 25 years as originally intended to over 60 by currently anticipated closure). This also includes things like installing SCR (a system to reduce NOx emissions), another costly project.

I believe that Drax is well past the worst of the engineering and refurbishment work that it would need to do to carry on, burning coal or biomass. The thing no-one is talking about is that many other stations haven't or are going offline, which will lead to an energy shortage from around 2015/2016 onwards. The only way to fill this hole in time (that is politically acceptable) is gas. We've all seen how volitile the gas price can be. Drax will have the ability (from next year or maybe the year after) to simply become a 'peak' provider or fill in when gas is very expensive. These running regimes are very profitable, even if the CO2 price is increased. This could even make it a takeover target for someone like Centrica, who currently do not own any coal stations.

All this, along with the low valuation, high dividend and possibility of more favourable conditions with the biomass project (I have no idea how they're getting on with that) makes Drax interesting.

Rotation96 25 Jul 2012 , 10:10am

Just to be clear, following today's RNS and subsequent drop I regarded them as hugely oversold and bought in.

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