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I have been and remain with F958B on this one. So much so that spending the last year in over 50% cash has resulted in a relatively lack lustre annual return.

The reason for my increased caution is that the S & P 500 is the key market to watch, currently more than doubled since its March 2009 low. On an historic (not forecast) earnings basis, the S & P is fully valued (expensive).

Money printing or QE has been the main reason that the S & P has strayed so far above its fundamentals. That bull market may continue for some time especially as the animal spirits so in evidence grow.

What there is agreement about is that we are in the midst of an exhuberant bull market? How will it end? That poses a dilemma for some - not me since I am already 60% cash.


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