I'm afraid much of what you say about "worth to me" price, relative value, risk-on-risk-off and cyclicals means little or nothing to me.
How do I apply my rule?
When I try and evaluate a share, whether for buying or selling, one - just one - of the things I look at is its PER.
I don't like to pay more than about 10 times earnings, and if anything climbs to more than about 18 I start to think about selling.
But let me stress that PER is only one of about half a dozen items on my checklist.